Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions

Grziwotz, Florian; Chang, Chun -Wei; Dakos, Vasilis; van Nes, Egbert H.; Schwarzländer, Markus; Kamps, Oliver; Hessler, Martin; Tokuda, Isao T.; Telschow, Arndt; Hsieh, Chih-hao

Abstract

Critical transition can occur in many real-world systems. The ability to forecast the occurrence of transition is of major interest in a range of contexts. Various early warning signals (EWSs) have been developed to anticipate the coming critical transition or distinguish types of transition. However, no effective method allows to establish practical threshold indicating the condition when the critical transition is most likely to occur. Here, we introduce a powerful EWS, named dynamical eigenvalue (DEV), that is rooted in bifurcation theory of dynamical systems to estimate the dominant eigenvalue of the system. Theoretically, the absolute value of DEV approaches 1 when the system approaches bifurcation, while its position in the complex plane indicates the type of transition. We demonstrate the efficacy of the DEV approach in model systems with known bifurcation types and also test the DEV approach on various critical transitions in real-world systems.