A Novel Pre-Kidney Transplant Risk Score to Optimize Waiting List Management

Henkel, Lino; Könemann, Katharina; Kane, Alison; Boeckel, Göran Ramin; Menke, Amélie Friederike; Harth, Ana; Houben, Philipp; Pavenstädt, Hermann; Arns, Wolfgang; Reuter, Stefan

Abstract

Background: Clinical tools to structure kidney transplant waitlist management at the time of listing are limited. We evaluated a simple, donor-independent clinical grading applied at waitlist registration to stratify patients according to post-transplant risk. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 465 adult kidney transplant recipients from two German centers (2018–2023). Patients were assigned to three clinical grading groups based on age and comorbidities, and to three immunologic groups based on pre-immunization. One-year outcomes included mortality, graft loss, eGFR, albuminuria, and rejection. Results: Higher clinical grades were associated with worse one-year outcomes, including lower eGFR and higher rates of death or graft loss, whereas immunologic grading was associated with waiting time but not short-term post-transplant outcomes. These associations appeared robust to donor characteristics in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: A simple, listing-time clinical grading may support structured waitlist management before donor information is available. External validation is required.