Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process?

Heuer A, Mueller C, Rubner O

Abstract

The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analyzed on a strictly scientific level. The anal. is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A uniquely defined function is derived which quant. predicts the expected av. outcome of a soccer match in terms of the fitness of both teams. It is checked whether temporary fitness fluctuations of a team hamper the predictability of a soccer match. To a very good approxn. scoring goals during a match can be characterized as independent Poissonian processes with pre-detd. expectation values. Minor correlations give rise to an increase of the no. of draws. The non-Poissonian overall goal distribution is just a consequence of the fitness distribution among different teams. The limits of predictability of soccer matches are quantified. Our model-free classification of the underlying ingredients detg. the outcome of soccer matches can be generalized to different types of sports events.