The geostrategic race for leadership in future electric vehicle battery technologies

Hemmelder, André; Tietze, Frank; Lux, Simon; Leker, Jens; Jahnke, Lars; von Delft, Stephan

Abstract

Global leadership in electric vehicle battery technologies has become a critical geopolitical issue. This study analyzes a dataset of 32572 patent families across six promising future battery technologies, along with policy documents, to assess the dynamics of geostrategic competition and regional positioning. While China leads in the number of patents across all six technologies, global leadership in patent quality varies, reflecting differences in regional policies and their effectiveness. Specifically, the findings reveal diverging competitive dynamics between high-energy lithium-based technologies (e.g., lithium solidstate batteries) and low-cost non-lithium-based technologies (e.g., sodium-ion batteries). This suggests a need to reassess competitiveness strategies, particularly in Western regions, which currently focus on developing domestic markets for established lithium-ion battery technologies and gaining more control over today’s battery supply chains. In contrast, policies in China, Japan, and South Korea prioritize investment in the future battery patent landscape, where these regions already account for nearly 85% of global patents. This highlights a growing global innovation imbalance. Moreover, there is a risk that this innovation gap will continue to widen due to increasing disparities in technological capabilities, potentially jeopardizing geostrategic autonomy for some regions. Tailored policies and targeted investments in Europe and the United States are essential to achieve competitive positioning, enhance technological autonomy, and meet climate neutrality goals.