I like, I share, I vote: Mapping the dynamic system of political marketing

Kübler, Raoul V.; Manke, Kai; Pauwels, Koen

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationships between actions from the multiple stakeholders in political marketing. Using over 200 million social media posts, media coverage, advertising data, and poll results, we map a highly dynamic and interconnected system involving candidates, voters, media, and digital platforms. Our results highlight feedback effects even more intense than in comparable systems of traditional marketing. Our empirical findings show that beside the candidates’ own marketing efforts, on- and offline-chatter significantly influences candidate actions, media narratives, and voter behavior, with disinformation playing a critical role in discussions and polls. Traditional media amplifies online conversations and disinformation, further influencing political support. Our results provide campaign managers with insights into how to navigate this dynamic system and how to handle disinformation and poll ambiguity. We further provide guidelines for media professionals, and policymakers to navigate and regulate this complex dynamic system.