Electrifying Choices: How Electric Bicycles Impact on Mode Choice and CO2 Emissions

Hagedorn, Thomas; Meier, Marlena; Wessel, Jan

Research article (journal) | Peer reviewed

Abstract

This paper analyzes (i) the influence of electric bicycle (‘‘e-bike’’) ownership on transport mode choice and (ii) how a change in e-bike ownership affects carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions in Germany. Using longitudinal data from household surveys from 2016 to 2022, we first conduct a trip-level analysis with a mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL model) to estimate mode choice probabilities. The results show that the change in e-bike ownership significantly affects travel behavior, by increasing the likelihood of choosing an e-bike as means of transportation by 14.6 percentage points (p.p.), while correspondingly decreasing the likelihood of choosing other modes, especially conventional bicycles by 5.6 p.p., as well as car and public transportation by about 4 p.p. each. Second, by using observed changes in individual distances traveled and transport-mode-specific emissions values, we calculate net emissions savings per person after acquiring an e-bike. These savings amount to 526.9 kg CO2 per person and year.

Details about the publication

JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume142
StatusPublished
Release year2025
DOI10.1016/j.trd.2025.104682
KeywordsE-Bikes, transport mode choice, CO2 emissions, longitudinal data, mixed multinominal logit model

Authors from the University of Münster

Hagedorn, Thomas
Professur für Verkehrswissenschaft (Prof. Sieg)
Meier, Marlena Julia
Professur für Verkehrswissenschaft (Prof. Sieg)
Wessel, Jan
Professur für Verkehrswissenschaft (Prof. Sieg)