Against all odds? The development of national level risk analysis in Germany

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Zusammenfassung

Germany is a country traditionally characterized by a security approach to hazards wherein the state is responsible for the protection of the population. In the last decade, risk language has crept into German disaster policy. It is an empirical question, if this indicates a shift towards a risk approach to hazards which is focused more on prevention and mitigation. This paper contributes to this question. It inquires to what extend risk analysis, a key component of a risk approach, has entered the disaster policy field. To do this, the paper establishes which factors enable or constrain its spread. The case study is relevant beyond the national context given the EU's engagement for the establishment of a common civil protection mechanism: The mechanism is relying on risk analysis and risk management with prevention as a core objective. The preliminary findings indicate Germany to be a political environment that constrains the spread of disaster risk analysis and management. In order shed a first light on why and how this happens, the paper systematizes institutional, contextual and historical factors that interact in the disaster policy field. Whereas civil protection is a responsibility of the German states ("Länder") and local level entities, civil defense is a national responsibility. Since the early 2000s, the national and federal level have joined forces out of the rationale that similar or even the same mechanisms apply in case of disruptive events whatever causes them. One instrument used in this process is a common methodology for risk analysis that was developed by the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK). To answer the research question on the extend of the spread of risk analysis, the paper focusses on how the BBK's methodology for risk analysis came into being and developed further. For the national level, the BBK uses the methodology to develop disaster scenarios with the aim of creating a basis for assessments of national preparedness. However, a comparable risk analysis is not mandatory for the 16 German states for risks that impact only their territory and do not transcend borders. Furthermore, even on the national level risk management as a follow up of the risk analysis is not institutionalized as such. Methodologically, the analysis draws on policy analysis and on interviews conducted as part of a larger PhD-project on the shift towards risk governance in Germany.

Vortragende der Universität Münster

Prokopf, Christine

Professur für Nachhaltige Entwicklung (Prof. Fuchs)