Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change

Gerling Lena

Zusammenfassung

This study investigates the impact of urban protests on coup attempts and subsequent regime change in asample of 39 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. Widespread public discontent,especially when occurring in urban centers, can act as a trigger of coups d'état in autocratic regimes. Yet, itis less clear how elites respond to protests in terms of post-coup institutional change and democratization. Toaccount for potential endogeneity of protests and coups, variation in rainfall is used as an instrument for urbanprotests. The results show that rainfall-related urban protests raise the likelihood that a coup is staged, but haveno effect on subsequent democratization.